Should we be worried about Tropical Storm Dorian?

tropical storm dorian

This post is also available in: Spanish

tropical storm dorianHello and welcome to the stormiest July in the Dominican Republic for at least the last 10 years. That’s right folks, this July, typically a month that doesn’t bring any “Tropical Weather” to our shores, already brought Tropical Storm Chantal within striking distance… and now it looks like another, Tropical Storm Dorian, could be heading this way too.

Tropical Storm Dorian formed earlier this afternoon in the mid-Atlantic ocean and is currently moving in a west-north-west direction at 20mph, with maximum sustained wind speeds of up to 50mph.

Currently more than 2500 miles away from Santo Domingo, the capital city of the Dominican Republic, Tropical Storm Dorian does not yet pose any threat to La Romana and Casa de Campo, so there really is no need to panic. According to prediction models Tropical Storm Dorian is expected to near the Dominican Republic by next Monday – as a Tropical Storm, or possibly as a category 1 hurricane.

tropical storm dorian

Of course with this Tropical Storm being so far away, at this stage literally anything could happen, “intensity models have large errors at 5 days” explains weather.com when talking about the potential of Dorian, which basically means that this storm may disappear completely or could develop further…

So before you rush off in a panic, here are a few other facts about “prediction models” to keep in mind:

• On AVERAGE, a Tropical Cyclone’s actual path differs from it’s predicted path by 200 miles!

• On AVERAGE, a Tropical Cyclone’s actual strength (i.e. category) differs from it’s predicted strength by 2 categories!

Tropical Storm Chantal was a great example of this, remember when we all went to bed expecting to wake up to the arrival of Hurricane Chantal? Well what did we find when we woke up? Nothing much – because even though she was so close, Tropical Weather systems are still essentially pretty unpredictable!

In conclusion – we need to wait and see!

Whilst we at Casa de Campo Living will do our best to keep you informed, we recommend the following for keeping extra-informed:

• www.nhc.noaa.gov – The National Hurricane Centre
• www.weather.com – The Weather Channel
• ONAMET.gov.do – the Dominican Republic’s official weather warning people (this one is in Spanish)
• Twitter: We recommend following NHC_Atlantic – for regular tweets on hurricanes, tropical storms etc

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