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The “curse” of mid-August strikes again! Every year on the 15th of August (give or take a few days), the “peak” hurricane season gets underway. Today as we awake to find Tropical Depression 5 newly developed in the Atlantic ocean… so begins 6 weeks (más o menos) of constant weather watching!
UPDATE (Thursday, Aug.15th, 11am): Tropical Depression 5 has already developed into Tropical Storm Erin
Of course, here in the Dominican Republic we do tend to be extremely “lucky” when it comes to hurricanes, tropical storms etc… remember in the last 34 years, this beautiful country has only experienced 2 direct hits from a hurricane – and in the last few years alone has been narrowly missed by countless more – Hurricane Isaac in 2012, Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Earl in 2010, to name but a few.
So what about Tropical Depression 5?
First of all, like most of the tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes that will develop over the next 6-8 weeks – there is not too much cause for alarm.
Although the “predicted” track seems to look vaguely like it is heading directly towards the Dominican Republic, the reality is that when a tropical weather system is so far away (in this case 2,972 miles to be exact), we, nor indeed the weather experts have much idea where it will go – or indeed to what strength it will develop.
Tropical Depression 5 is a looong way away… 2972 miles!
Tropical Depression 5 – the facts
What we do know is the following, Tropical Depression 5 currently:
• has maximum sustained wind speeds of 35mph
• is located 2,972 miles away from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic – that’s significantly closer to Africa than the Caribbean
• is moving west-north-west at a speed of 16mph
Tropical Depression 5 – the predictions
As I already mentioned “predictions” for a storm so far away are typically massively inaccurate, nevertheless Tropical Depression 5 is currently predicted:
• to develop into Tropical Storm Erin or Tropical Storm Ferdinand within the next 12 hours.
• to continue moving in a north-west-north direction “towards” the Westward and Leeward Islands and the Dominican Republic.
• to, by next Tuesday, still be a tropical storm, somewhere in the mid-central Atlantic ocean. At this point the system will still be more than 1,000 miles away from the Dominican Republic.
After that? Who knows! Literally this storm is so far away, that the only thing we can do is wait and watch, it could be nothing, it could be something…
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Tropical Storm Erin or Tropical Storm Ferdinand?
You may have noticed that I mentioned that this tropical depression could become “Erin” or “Ferdinand”. The reason is that there is another system, currently called “Invest 92-L”, located in the Gulf of Mexico, which is predicted to develop rapidly over the next few days. Which means these 2 potential storms are competing for the name Erin, whoever develops into a Tropical Storm first will be Erin, and second will be Ferdinand.
Don’t worry “Invest 92-L” is headed north and will not affect the Dominican Republic in the slightest.
More tropical weather updates soon!