This post is also available in:
Spanish
UPDATE (August 31st, 2012):
Now that a total of 12 named storms have already formed and August has been one of the most active months since records began – it has turned out that the “less-active” prediction was undoubtedly very wrong. Hurricane Season 2012 is now set to become “more active” than usual.
The dreaded “Hurricane Season” officially begins this coming June the 1st and with it we can expect the usual blustery, rainy and stormy weather, but with this season predicted to be significantly “less active” than normal, it hopefully won’t be too bad! So, here we bring you all the facts and predictions for Hurricane Season 2012, which will start on June 1st and end on November 30th.
Hurricane Season 2012 – predictions
On April 24th of this year, The Weather Channel (www.weather.com) published it’s 2012 “preseason forecast”, predicting 11 named storms of which 6 are expected to develop into hurricanes and 2 into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).
These forecast numbers are below both the long-term average (1950-2011) of 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, as well as significantly below the average for the recent era (1995-2011) of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
“The combination of much cooler North Atlantic ocean temperatures and a trend towards El Nino conditions suggest a notable reduction in activity. There is still uncertainty regarding the development of El Nino, which will impact future forecast updates. If the chances of El Nino development increase, our forecast numbers will likely go down even further in future updates.” — Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford at The Weather Channel (www.weather.com)
Great news right?
Yes and no….. remember that although meteorologists are now able to accurately predict the approximate number of named storms that will develop in any given season, they are not able to predict where (and if) these storms will make landfall – which means that anyone living (or vacationing in) an area affected by hurricanes (yes that’s us in the Dominican Republic) must be prepared.
AND perhaps most frightening of all – historically some of the “least active” hurricane seasons have been the most devastating…….just a few examples are:
• Hurricane Season 1992 – had only 6 named storms, including “Hurricane Andrew” a category 5 hurricane which made landfall in Florida.
• Hurricane Season 1983 – had only 4 named storms, including “Hurricane Alicia” which made landfall in Houston-Galveston as a category 3 hurricane.
On the other hand……the last 2 year’s seasons (2010 and 2011) were very active, both producing 19 named storms – but with very few landfalls and limited damage to populated areas.
What does this mean for us?
1. Be prepared
We are working on an article focussing on “hurricane preparedness” in Casa de Campo, but in the meantime click here to read for advice from The Weather Channel.
2. Keep informed
Whilst we at Casa de Campo Living will do our best to keep you informed, we recommend the following for keeping extra-informed:
• www.nhc.noaa.gov – The National Hurricane Centre
• www.weather.com – The Weather Channel
• ONAMET.gov.do – the Dominican Republic’s official weather warning people (this one is in Spanish)
• Twitter: We recommend following NHC_Atlantic – for regular tweets on hurricanes, tropical storms etc
DISCLAIMER: I am not a weather expert – I am a weather enthusiast!
For those of you who know me this fact will not come as much of a surprise, but I just thought I’d better mention it – this article and the many articles I will write about hurricane season over the next 6 months will be based on the information I gather from numerous websites, which I use to create “Casa de Campo” relevant weather updates. I hope you enjoy them/find them useful!
Storm names!
I find the “names” of storms fascinating and so in case you do too, here is the 2012 hurricane season list of names:
|
|
|
Sources:
www.wikipedia.org
www.weather.com