Tropical Depression 14: Dominican Republic within «cone of probability»

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UPDATE, 1pm Wednesday September the 7th: Tropical Storm Maria forms!

Tropical Storm Maria

Image from: stormpulse.com

• Tropical Depression 14 has now developed into Tropical Storm Maria as predicted
• Tropical Storm Maria is no longer predicted to become Hurricane Maria
• Dominican Republic remains within the “cone of probability” – but it is more likely that the ‘eye’ of the storm will track to the North of the Domininican Republic!

Last night we brought you the worrying news that Tropical Depression 14 had developed in the Atlantic Ocean to the East of the Dominican Republic – and that this Tropical Depression was predicted to become Hurricane Maria by this weekend. Now that “Tropical Depression 14” has moved closer to the Dominican Republic, we can see that Casa de Camp lies within the “Cone of Probability”

No my friends this is still not good news – but don’t panic it is not terrible either. In summary, yes the Dominican Republic lies within the “Cone of Probability” – but given that Casa de Campo La Romana is right on the edge of this cone, it is unlikely (but possible) that once developed Hurricane Maria will directly impact our beautiful south coast.

Tropical Depression 14  – The Facts
Image from: Hurricane Tracker by weather.com

• TD 14 is currently located  2oo miles to the South-East of the Santo Domingo, the Dominican Republic’s capital city.
• TD 14 is moving at a speed at 20kph in a West-North-West direction
• TD 14 currently has winds of 35mph (56kph)
• TD 14 is predicted to become Tropical Storm Maria in the next few hours – by this afternoon
• Current predictions say TD14 will develop into a Hurricane category 1 by Monday (when she will probably by ABOVE the Dominican Republic)

Tropical Storm Maria – Where is she going?
Image from: weather.com

 

• Right now TD14 is moving  West-North-West and heading towards the Leeward Islands 
• This weekend, it is very likely that this Tropical Cyclone system will cross over the Leeward Islands as Tropical Storm Maria
• After crossing over the Leeward Island it is MOST likely that “Tropical Storm Maria” will head North and move ABOVE Puerto Rico and then ABOVE the Dominican Republic and Casa de Campo

Dominican Republic in the “cone of probability” – what does that mean?

Image from: wunderground.com

• The “cone of probability” shows where the centre of a hurricane or Tropical Storm is most likely to go. 
• The fact that the Dominican Republic lies within the “cone of probability” for “hurricane Maria” means that it is possible (although less likely) that the storm centre could pass over the DR.
• But beware the “cone of probability” is not 100% accurate – in fact the “cone of probability” is only 60-70% accurate, meaning that over a 5 day forecast there is a 30-40% chance that the centre of a storm will stray outside the predicted “cone”

The GOOD news!
Image from: stormpulse.com 

90% of the forecast models shown on the above diagram from stormpluse.com predict that Tropical Depression 14 will head North of the Dominican Republic – that’s pretty good odds!